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Title :  The Outlook for the world economy: The Dollar And the Fed's Rate Timing
Lasting :   3,19
User :  Kazijind
Date of publication :   2019-10-15
Views :   269
Liked :   106
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Frames The Outlook for the world economy: The Dollar And the Fed's Rate Timing

Description The Outlook for the world economy: The Dollar And the Fed's Rate Timing

With another rate-composite-announcement today, October 28, the uncertainty of the market in anticipation of a rate hike as "lift-off" is on the rise. Today GEO look at the impact of the rise in prices in US dollars and the dynamics of the Fed's indecision, a "lift-off" date.

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The Economic Indicators

In The Calendar This Week

Monday, October 26,
New Zealand trade balance (in real terms:-1222M expected:-822M:-1079M)

Mar 27.
The UK Prelim GDP (real:0.5% expected:0.6% previous year:0.7%) and
US consumer confidence (actual:97.6 forecast:102.5 previous year:102.6)

Wednesday, 28.
Australia CPI q/q (actual:0.5% under:0.7% year:0.7%) and
Fed Funds Rate

Thursday, October 29
WE complaints, the unemployment rate (expected:264K previous year:259K)

On Friday, The 30. October
The bank of Japan's monetary policy education
Canada GDP m/m (forecast:0.1% previous:0.3%)

Always Up To Date

The uncertainty arises from the Fed's delay in the display of the inevitable rise in interest the origin of behavior in the market is to be careful. They examine the impact on the markets and the US dollar in the future.

The first thing you understand about the world of Finance over the last 7 years, the dynamics of the flow of money, which was launched by the Fed's zero interest rate policy " (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) is introduced in programs, after the credit crisis of 2008.

QE or "money printing" by the Fed had the effect of the depreciation of the US dollar, because the money supply is inflated, each unit of coin that is less than the pool of circulating money increases. So, investors who do not want to hold dollars, while the coin is very devalued, and many have decided to convert the us dollar, stable currencies, gold and equities.

ZIRP means that the ownership of the coin in a vault at the bank or even a Bank account, money market yields of zero percent growth. The net effect of the Deposit of dollars to generate a Bank account in the USA in the years 2008 and 2014, the time would be a loss on which dollar of the money, which devalued were (for QE), faster near-zero interest rates (<0.25%) could growth.

The strategy of the large institutional investors and banks in the shade with the creation of investment funds invested in us dollar in emerging market equities and commodities.

The value of silver, therefore, which have been transferred, is stimulated in developing countries, stocks, and commodities, and in the process, developing countries, development, economic growth, the loop in a feedback, it generates a generous rate of return for foreign investors.

Inevitably, the Fed "tapered" QE and the end of a QE program by the end of 2013. With the US dollar no longer being actively devalued, investors were able to make a profit on their investments in the emerging markets, the conversion of the value of return USD to repatriate their money.

The effect was an outflow of investments from developing countries, and an influx of dollars for the u. s. economy, while a strengthening of the currency. This is the "money flow" in action.

As a result of the circulating money in the U.S. economy during the year 2014, the value of the USD has increased, while the developing countries and the economy suffered the impact of the sale.

The dynamics is today one of the news until mid-2015, when the slowdown of growth in China has prompted US to take investment funds, substantial profits in the Chinese market by the Shanghai Composite Index is in free fall, domestic investors, left holding the bag empty.

Day-to-day work, Chinese that your stock market advance driven by growth in china. Of course, to some extent, but if a slowdown in growth (as it always does, and when you least expect it), it is clear that the largest buyer, and that the flows of money, initiated by the QE of the Fed and ZIRP, has blown the bubble on the stock all the market.

The proposal to bring an increase in the interest rates to near zero and in the first floor of the Fed's communication in the year 2015, the market is forced to a new reality. Cheap credit disappears, the markets of emerging countries could encourage in a recession and the dollar will strength with a rise in interest rates in foreign money stands out with a higher return on U.S. investments.

The prospects are not clear, but the beginning of this new era, is uncertain. Investors - large institutions - are the thickness of the positioning in anticipation of the continuation of the USD, but as long as the Fed announces that it will "lift-off" date, their position is precarious and vulnerable. So, there is a lot of coverage of the market, while the uncertainty and the risks extended by the Fed's perceived indecision.

Popular hedges gold, bonds, commodities and currencies, such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and the development of the foreign exchange market. In theory, once the Fed enabled the starter gun, the cover is not cut, and the value of the flow rate against the US dollar, sending a spectacular rally for the immediate future.

As the price of tables, it is clear that, in its role as a commodity currency, bitcoin is also used as a hedge and "safe haven". While the market is still uncertain and is subject to the perception of the Fed's "indecision" bitcoin (basic considerations), and should continue to rally.

The irony of the situation on the current market, is that the "lift-off" is the indecision only one of the tips. The Fed is already, in fact, the growth of the...

Final Thoughts...

A quote from Senator Palpatine, I would like to say, Larry Summers:

[Outputs] means that more and more downward pressure on emerging market] interest rates and more and more and increase the pressure on the [or the weakening of the currencies; the medium more and more, and disinflation and deflation the pressure, getting more and more trendy because of the loss of competitiveness, the promotion of reducing the demand and increasing the supply.

Immagine de Shutterstock.

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